Nintendo has released what analysts are describing as a "cautious" sales forecast for the upcoming Switch 2, projecting 15 million console units and 45 million game units sold during its current fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The Switch 2 is set to launch globally on June 5.
In its financial report, Nintendo noted that this forecast assumes the continuation of U.S. tariff rates that went into effect on April 10. However, the company acknowledged that any changes to these tariffs could impact its projections. “We will continue to monitor the situation closely in order to adapt to evolving market conditions,” the company stated.
Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, described the 15 million unit forecast as “conservative,” suggesting that Nintendo is likely accounting for uncertainty around tariffs, pricing, and production challenges—even with strong pre-order momentum. Ahmad added that Nintendo might revise its forecast upward if tariff pressures are lifted. “However, the main issue right now is the ongoing ripple effects already in motion, which are creating a challenging environment for a console launch. Not to mention the looming threat of increased tariffs.”
It’s worth noting that achieving 15 million units in its first fiscal year would position the Switch 2 among the most successful console launches in history—surpassing the original Switch's first-year sales of 14.87 million units.
The demand for the Switch 2 appears to be massive. Following a brief delay linked to tariff-related adjustments, pre-orders for the $449.99 console launched on April 24—and they performed largely as expected given the hype. At the same time, Nintendo issued a notice to U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store, stating that delivery by launch date cannot be guaranteed due to overwhelming demand.
For more details, check out IGN’s Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.
